SARS Trade Data Commentary: April
A monthly commentary of South Africa’s trade data as interpreted by the South African Revenue Service.
The country posted a trade surplus of R5.1bn in April 2017 a change from March’s trade surplus of R11.4bn. The trade account’s year to date position has improved to R9.9bn when comparing it to the deficit seen in April 2016 (R-26.4bn). The surplus is in line with the market expectations and with the country’s historical trends (2016 April posted R0.4bn surplus).
“Although the international trade performance is doing reasonably well, the local landscape is still fragile and consumers seem to be directing their spending towards more basic consumables, resulting in reduced demand in the retail sector. The retail slowdown is further impacted by the competitiveness of international businesses as well as to a smaller extent the increasing penetration of e-commerce. The South African Reserve bank (SARB) kept the repo rate unchanged at the recent MPC meeting and consumer inflation is now within the target range at 5.3% for April. If the latter persists, we could start seeing some improvements in consumer confidence and local demand could slowly pick up.”
“The country is currently reliant on external demand whilst local demand is stagnant. The more optimistic global growth forecasts represent an opportunity for businesses to look at exporting into global markets thereby maintaining or growing their production levels and ensuring sustainable growth.”